Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Can Santorum stay strong?

GOP presidential candidates seem to come and go similar to how the moon waxes and wanes. We've seen it over and over again: a very popular candidate sinks only to be replaced by another who does likewise--and the cycle continues. The most recent surge has been in favor of Rick Santorum. Thus, as the frontrunners become more clear, it seems that the GOP nomination might be a battle between Santorum and Mitt Romney--a candidate who has stayed comparatively consistent throughout the race. 

Therefore, the real question at this point in the race is "Can Santorum stay strong?" Jonathan Bernstein of the Washington Post published an opinion piece on this topic yesterday, which sums up Santorum's current position quite well. Bernstein identifies 5 main areas to measure Santorum's chances of winning:  1) Wednesday's debate, 2) Santorum's performance with the elevated attention, 3) Georgia's reception to him, 4) whether he will get endorsement, 5) the Arizona and Michigan polls.

Volumes could be written on each of these reasons, but suffice it to say that they are all good indicators of Santorum's viability. Why? First, the polls and debates indicate a lot about his potential for obvious reasons. Also, the question of Santorum's performance under new pressure is important because he's never been considered a legitimate candidate until recently. Similarly, the issue of endorsement is also telling since it is really difficult to imagine a candidate succeeding with very little support from his party. Bernstein's list of items to watch is well thought out.

Bernstein's article is written for those with at least some political knowledge, but it is clear enough that you don't have to know much to understand it. Also, Bernstein is a opinion writer so he is not an expert, but has an educated and definite opinion: "Overall, I still think that Mitt Romney basically has this thing won, and what’s really at stake is how long he takes to end the contested portion of the process." Bernstein logically looks at current events and comes to a reasonable conclusion.

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